Quantifying the rebound of influenza epidemics after the adjustment of zero-COVID policy in China.

The coexistence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and seasonal influenza epidemics has become a potential threat to human health, particularly in China in the oncoming season. However, with the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic, the rebound extent of the influenza activities is still poorly understood. In this study, we constructed a susceptible-vaccinated-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SVIRS) model to simulate influenza transmission and calibrated it using influenza surveillance data from 2018 to 2022. We projected the influenza transmission over the next 3 years using the SVIRS model. We observed that, in epidemiological year 2021-2022, the reproduction numbers of influenza in southern and northern China were reduced by 64.0 and 34.5%, respectively, compared with those before the pandemic. The percentage of people susceptible to influenza virus increased by 138.6 and 57.3% in southern and northern China by October 1, 2022, respectively. After relaxing NPIs, the potential accumulation of susceptibility to influenza infection may lead to a large-scale influenza outbreak in the year 2022-2023, the scale of which may be affected by the intensity of the NPIs. And later relaxation of NPIs in the year 2023 would not lead to much larger rebound of influenza activities in the year 2023-2024. To control the influenza epidemic to the prepandemic level after relaxing NPIs, the influenza vaccination rates in southern and northern China should increase to 53.8 and 33.8%, respectively. Vaccination for influenza should be advocated to reduce the potential reemergence of the influenza epidemic in the next few years.

Epidemiological and virological surveillance of influenza viruses in China during 2020-2021.

BACKGROUND: During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, seasonal influenza activity declined globally and remained below previous seasonal levels, but intensified in China since 2021. Preventive measures to COVID-19 accompanied by different epidemic characteristics of influenza in different regions of the world. To better respond to influenza outbreaks under the COVID-19 pandemic, we analyzed the epidemiology, antigenic and genetic characteristics, and antiviral susceptibility of influenza viruses in the mainland of China during 2020-2021. METHODS: Respiratory specimens from influenza like illness cases were collected by sentinel hospitals and sent to network laboratories in Chinese National Influenza Surveillance Network. Antigenic mutation analysis of influenza virus isolates was performed by hemagglutination inhibition assay. Next-generation sequencing was used for genetic analyses. We also conducted molecular characterization and phylogenetic analysis of circulating influenza viruses. Viruses were tested for resistance to antiviral medications using phenotypic and/or sequence-based methods. RESULTS: In the mainland of China, influenza activity recovered in 2021 compared with that in 2020 and intensified during the traditional influenza winter season, but it did not exceed the peak in previous years. Almost all viruses isolated during the study period were of the B/Victoria lineage and were characterized by genetic diversity, with the subgroup 1A.3a.2 viruses currently predominated. 37.8% viruses tested were antigenically similar to reference viruses representing the components of the vaccine for the 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 Northern Hemisphere influenza seasons. In addition, China has a unique subgroup of 1A.3a.1 viruses. All viruses tested were sensitive to neuraminidase inhibitors and endonuclease inhibitors, except two B/Victoria lineage viruses identified to have reduced sensitivity to neuraminidase inhibitors. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza activity increased in the mainland of China in 2021, and caused flu season in the winter of 2021-2022. Although the diversity of influenza (sub)type decreases, B/Victoria lineage viruses show increased genetic and antigenic diversity. The world needs to be fully prepared for the co-epidemic of influenza and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus globally.

Epidemiological and Virological Surveillance of Seasonal Influenza Viruses - China, 2020-2021.

INTRODUCTION: During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the circulation of seasonal influenza virus declined globally and remained below previous seasonal levels. We analyzed the results of the epidemiology, antigenic, and genetic characteristics, and antiviral susceptibilities of seasonal influenza viruses isolated from the mainland of China during October 5, 2020 through September 5, 2021, to better assess the risk of influenza during subsequent influenza season in 2021-2022. METHODS: Positive rates of influenza virus detection during this period were based on real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) detection by the Chinese National Influenza Surveillance Network laboratories, and isolated viruses from influenza positive samples were submitted to the Chinese National Influenza Center. Antigenic analyses for influenza viruses were conducted using the hemagglutination inhibition assay. Next-generation sequencing was used for genetic analyses. Viruses were tested for resistance to antiviral medications using a phenotypic assay and next-generation sequencing. RESULTS: In southern China, the influenza positivity rate was elevated especially after March 2021 and was higher than the same period the previous year with the COVID-19 pandemic. In northern China, influenza positive rate peaked at Week 18 in 2021 and has declined since then. Nearly all isolated viruses were B/Victoria lineage viruses during the study period, and 37.3% of these viruses are antigenically similar to the reference viruses representing the vaccine components for the 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 Northern Hemisphere influenza season. All seasonal influenza viruses were susceptible to neuraminidase inhibitors and endonuclease inhibitors. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza activity has gradually increased in the mainland of China in 2021, although the intensity of activity is still lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic. The diversity of circulating influenza types/subtypes decreased, with the vast majority being B/Victoria lineage viruses. The surveillance data from this study suggest that we should strengthen influenza surveillance during the upcoming traditional influenza season. It also provided evidence for vaccine recommendations and prevention and control of influenza and clinical use of antiviral drugs.